Quarters

Between June and November 1999 I examined, graded, and tallied 2,251 Washington clad quarters dated 1965 through 1998. This was the total number reached by the time I had found two of every date and mint mark combination. All the coins came from circulation in Western Massachusetts. About half the coins examined were obtained in rolls from banks. The other half was from a friend's two-year accumulation of change from emptying his pockets into a jar on his dresser. The final coin for which I found a second example was the 1968-D. The numbers found of each date and mint mark combination in each grade are shown below:

Not surprisingly, older quarters are more heavily circulated. About half from 1965-67 grade no better than Very Good. Fewer than five percent of the pre-Bicentennial quarters found in circulation grade Extremely Fine or better. In the later 1990s, more than 80% of the coins grade at least XF; most of the others have damage but little wear. Note the exception: Bicentennial quarters are more much more likely than others of similar age to grade XF or better. This comes as no surprise. Bicentennials tend to be saved in large numbers, and when one hoarder spends one, another soon squirrels it away. It also appears that 1983s have been removed from circulation in the higher grades: hardly any XFs were found.

When I compared the numbers found to the numbers minted, I was able to calculate the ratio of the numbers observed compared to the numbers one would expect to find if all the coins made were still circulating. This ratio measures the survival rate. Naturally, the older the date, the fewer found. When I looked at Denver and Philadelphia separately, I was surprised to find that the ratios diverge sharply after 1980. It appears that it takes a full twenty years for Denver coins to mix completely into the Western Massachusetts pool.

When we ignore mintmarks and consider only the age of the coins, we find that the number of quarters in circulation from any given year decreases quickly in the first two or three years and then decreases more slowly. After more than thirty years, the earliest quarters (1965-74) are found at about one-third the rate of recent quarters (1993-98). Note the very low survival in circulation of the Bicentenial quarter. Once again, it suggests hoarding.

When we combine survival rates and grade as functions of age, we can estimate the proportions of the circulating population that remain in XF condition or better. To partially even out anomalies such as the Bicentennial quarter, I used five-year averages. I also reset the survival ratios so that 1998 = 1.00. Based on this single sample of 2,251 coins, it appears that only 1% or 2% of the pre-Bicentennials released to circulation remain in XF. This means that collecting the lower mintages from circulation has become a real challenge.

By applying this survival rate to the original mintages, we can calculate the number of XF+ quarters that remain in circulation for any given date. (Bear in mind that this is a single sample, and not statistically rigorous.) Several dates (1968-D, 1969-D, and 1971 P & D) have only about a million or fewer remaining. Adding this number to the number already preserved in collections tells us how many collectible clad quarters of any given date exist. Very few people collected the clad coins when they first came out. Checking for Uncirculated specimens from 1968 and 1969 at my local dealers and coin shows, I have found that they are not particularly thick on the ground. Individual specimens that I purchase from stock books generally do not get restocked by the time I come back again two or three months later. I have, however, found the (very) occasional Uncirculated roll. Mint sets are not abundant but can be found and usually cost $3 to $5.

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